Thanks to the “first past the post” system, it is actually possible, and even likely that Ukip will get ZERO seats in a general election in this country. Sure, the same does not apply to EU elections which use a more democratic system for voting support percentages.
It works like this:
Consider THREE different wards in the UK, each with 25,000 inhabitants.
In ward (1) LABOUR score 6,500 UKIP score 6,400, LIBDEM score 3,100 CONSERVATIVE score 2000 with no-shows & other parties have the rest between them. LABOUR win the seat with a majority of 100, making it a marginal for the 2020 election. The “winning” candidate is pretty safe in their job for 5 years.
In ward (2) CONSERVATIVE score 6,500, UKIP score 6400, LABOUR score 3,100 and LIBDEM score 2000 ditto ditto ditto…
CONSERVATIVE win the seat with a majority of 100.
In ward (3) LIBDEM score 6,500, UKIP score 6400, CONSERVATIVE score 3,100 and LABOUR score 2000 ditto ditto ditto…
LIBDEM win the seat with another small majority of 100.
So, each of the three main parties win a seat each, UKIP win bugger all.
Now look at the total number of votes for each party - CONSERATIVE total is 11,600. Labour and Libdem have that same total.
UKIP polled 19,500 overall, and didn’t win a seat despite having over half as many votes again as the other three parties.
To manipulate the result therefore, all the main parties need to do whilst in council power is to alter the boundaries should they find that UKIP are just a little too strong in one area, and might actually win that seat. Calls of “Fiddle” on the day fall upon deaf ears, because the three main parties will all go along with the continuing “first past the post” fleecing of the common vote. Of course, if there’s a ■■■■-up, and UKIP actually won a few seats, then there would quickly be accusations of “Electoral Irregularities” with (engineered) votes going missing for the three main parties - regardless of the fact that a few missing votes for the party in fourth place in particular isn’t going to make a jot of difference. When pumped by a main-party-supporting media - that manufactured “irregularity” becomes a scandal that, of course, will oddly make the front page of the gutter erm I mean incumbent-supporting press for the next morning’s papers.
Thus, if the three main parties aided and abetted by the biased press can just put a mere 101 voters off from voting UKIP on the day ANYWHERE and EVERYWHERE in this example, then “many seats won” quickly turns into “NIL seats won” as shown in the examples above - and the dream of taking back control of our own government dies over breakfast on the friday morning. Recent unwelcome publicity for UKIP has probably put off a few wets that were considering voting for them. There might already be enough damage done to stop what only a few weeks ago was a juggernaut. I hope I’m wrong about this I really do, but I’m one of the few people around who can say "I got where I am today (ie nowhere) by being right" about things involving human nature alas.