The HGV Agency Fandango

Rjan:

Franglais:
WTO tariffs are (top of my head) 10% on finished cars and 4.5% on parts. Also 35% on dairy produce, and I think high rates on sheep meat too.

I’m going to have to call for some authority on this because it’s not consistent with my understanding of the WTO at all.

You seem to be suggesting that, when a member of the WTO, it is the WTO that sets all tariffs for the entire world at once, not the individual nations whose governments are left to determine their own level of tariffs.

You have also suggested, somewhat implausibly in my view, that it is because the US and China have some sort of deal in place, which allows the US to ramp up tariffs to punish China.

If they traded on WTO terms, in your argument, it would be the WTO that set the tariff, and neither Trump nor Xi would be able to change them.

Whether or not we are net importers of cars, why would Mr Nissan build a factory here if it’s main market is hampered with tax?

It’s main market won’t be hampered with tax, because it’s main market will be the domestic market. I’ve explained (and supported with car industry statistics) how our domestic car market is currently larger than our entire car production - the gap currently filled with imports, will be filled by Mr Nissan selling his cars here rather than putting them on a ship for export.

Or as Toonsy asks will be all be driving identicars from the single state owned factory?

There appears to be no pleasing you. First you say it’s crucial to have scale, and the EU provides that. Now we need bespoke production, lest we drive identical cars - heaven forbid I share my car design with more than a million other drivers.

Perhaps you could argue that we get both benefits in the EU, scale and choice, but my argument is that such profligate “choice” for consumers actually means “competition down” on wages for workers - and very often it means increasingly shoddy design and higher repair costs for consumers, too.

It is not the job of workers to subsidise infinite whimsical choices for rich consumers. If there is natural capacity to provide choice when our wages are high and conditions secure, then that is all well and good - but we do not sell our jobs and wages down the river for consumer choice.

Ref “fear”.
If I’m in a car being driven recklessly, with the driver ignoring expert advice, I think fear is perfectly reasonable.
If we have expert international economists saying Brexit is bad, and NO Deal Brexit is worse, I think concern for the economy is entirety justified.
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You reject all trade??

Well, as far as the radical right go, I don’t blame you for being fearful.

And I don’t reject all trade in principle. I do reject the idea that our democracy should not have a supervisory function over trade - that trade flows should be “free” and determined by the rich in the marketplace, rather than supervised and subject to democratic decisions.

And I also do reject the idea that competing for intra-EU exports with the French and Germans is a positive-sum game. It’s actually a negative-sum game for workers, it just drives our wages down.

As for expert economists (i.e. capitalist economists paid by the rich), do you really think they spend all day trying to give an honest appraisal of the benefit of socialist policies for workers? I always had you down as a left-winger Franglais, but you’re starting to make me wonder.

I think you’re correct, and I am misunderstanding some of the WTO issues. I’ll come back later on that.
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If I have views that are mostly left wing, then i guess that makes me left wing.
That doesn’t mean I have chosen to be a “left winger” and seek to follow leftist paths.

Franglais:

Rjan:

I think you’re correct, and I am misunderstanding some of the WTO issues. I’ll come back later on that.

If I have views that are mostly left wing, then i guess that makes me left wing.
That doesn’t mean I have chosen to be a “left winger” and seek to follow leftist paths.

It’s just when I’ve given people credit for being sensible in the past, and for having pro-worker views, I’m surprised to see that arguments classifiable as “negative rumblings from bosses and capitalist analysts” passes muster.

I’m not saying bosses should be disregarded completely, but even when pro-worker policies are sound (perhaps, especially when those policies are sound), they will be sowing fear and declaring catastrophe, because for them it is a catastrophe and the sum of all fears when workers fight for and win a larger slice of the pie.

Rjan:

Franglais:
Swingeing tariffs?
If we are on WTO they set the rates. We don`t set them.

The WTO doesn’t actually set the tariffs. Otherwise there wouldn’t be all that furore about Trump tariffing China, because obviously he wouldn’t have been able to change them.

I can’t help hearing Peter Shore ringing in my ears: Fear! Fear! Fear!

I thought that with “Tariffs” - your home citizens are discouraged from buying the foreign product outright, but if they insist upon doing so - THEY (your home citizens) pay the tariffs…

Imagine where we would be if we doubled the price of a BMW or Merc - beyond the 20% mark-up they’ve effectively already had from the drop in the pound these past three years?

Remainers and Muslimy “road abusers” alike - would have to pay through the nose to get their hands on their precious new model of German Junk - enriching our exchequer with their purely voluntary tariff contributions in the process, leaving less cash for boy racing/turning up at Doughnutting/Antifa events etc… What’s not-to-like here?? :stuck_out_tongue: :smiling_imp:

So, individual member countries of the WTO each set there own WTO import tariffs and ‘register’ them with rhe WTO. Outside of approved trade agreements they must apply these equally to all other countries.
The EU, has tariffs of 10% on cars and 4.5% on car parts. In case of No Deal they must apply that to UK produced goods, or drop it for UK and all other countries equally.
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There are Most Favoured deals, but they are Deals.
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Is that agreed?
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On the US/China spat it seems I was again wrong in thinking that was to do with a deal that Trump wasn’t honouring. It seems it is a WTO rules trade that Trump isn’t honouring.
Depending on interpretation he is defending strategic defence industries, or illegally raising obstructions to the WTO rules his country is signed up to.
Not many think he is following WTO rules correctly.
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Franglais:
So, individual member countries of the WTO each set there own WTO import tariffs and ‘register’ them with rhe WTO. Outside of approved trade agreements they must apply these equally to all other countries.
The EU, has tariffs of 10% on cars and 4.5% on car parts. In case of No Deal they must apply that to UK produced goods, or drop it for UK and all other countries equally.
.
There are Most Favoured deals, but they are Deals.
.
Is that agreed?

Yes, I think that’s consistent with my understanding. On WTO, countries (or blocs) set their own import tariffs, but they must apply them equally to the whole global market and all countries at once - they can’t tariff their imports differently from different origins.

As for the EU, as I’ve said, their car market isn’t worth a hoot to us, because they import far more cars to Britain than we export to the continent, so we lose more market scale to them than we gain from them.

If there is 100% tariffs on car imports to the UK, we will not lose car factories, we will have to double their current number in order to meet the demand that is currently met with imports.

On the US/China spat it seems I was again wrong in thinking that was to do with a deal that Trump wasn’t honouring. It seems it is a WTO rules trade that Trump isn’t honouring.
Depending on interpretation he is defending strategic defence industries, or illegally raising obstructions to the WTO rules his country is signed up to.
Not many think he is following WTO rules correctly.
.

Indeed. The issue falls away because we accept that, in general, it is individual nations that set the import tariffs at their borders.

Except of course we know what happens to choice, prices, and quality In protected industries. A tariff protected UK car industry would end up producing dearer cars which are less affordable. Unhappy consumers and fewer jobs.
Tariff protection is useful in developing economies to protect young industries, but is not good in a developed economy.
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My arguments about where Mr Opel will want his next Astra factory still stand I think.

Franglais:
Except of course we know what happens to choice, prices, and quality In protected industries.

And we know now what happens to jobs and wages in unprotected industries - they either disappear, or we get permanently held to ransom by the bosses who threaten to ■■■■ off abroad.

A tariff protected UK car industry would end up producing dearer cars which are less affordable. Unhappy consumers and fewer jobs.

There won’t be fewer jobs for the reasons I’ve already explained, which is that the UK domestic market is already twice the size of its domestic productive capacity.

And cars dearer for whom? For workers who have better wages and secure terms?

Tariff protection is useful in developing economies to protect young industries, but is not good in a developed economy.
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My arguments about where Mr Opel will want his next Astra factory still stand I think.

As I’ve said, it’s high time bosses don’t have the choice about where our factories go.

Rjan:

Franglais:
Except of course we know what happens to choice, prices, and quality In protected industries.

And we know now what happens to jobs and wages in unprotected industries - they either disappear, or we get permanently held to ransom by the bosses who threaten to ■■■■ off abroad.

A tariff protected UK car industry would end up producing dearer cars which are less affordable. Unhappy consumers and fewer jobs.

There won’t be fewer jobs for the reasons I’ve already explained, which is that the UK domestic market is already twice the size of its domestic productive capacity.

And cars dearer for whom? For workers who have better wages and secure terms?

Tariff protection is useful in developing economies to protect young industries, but is not good in a developed economy.
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My arguments about where Mr Opel will want his next Astra factory still stand I think.

As I’ve said, it’s high time bosses don’t have the choice about where our factories go.

I’ll look closer at your early points, but on your last point: there isn’t a happy history of government deciding where and when to build factories, at least in developed democracies.

Franglais:

Rjan:

I’ll look closer at your early points, but on your last point: there isn’t a happy history of government deciding where and when to build factories, at least in developed democracies.

And there isn’t a happy history of bosses deciding either, in the developed democracies. All it leads to is commuting times going up, offshoring going up, threats to relocate going up, and it’s not on. People are entitled to say they’re not having it anymore.

Franglais:
I’ll look closer at your early points…

Is a reply still brewing, or have I sent you utterly back to the drawing board (from where I have also recently returned)?

Rjan:

Franglais:
I’ll look closer at your early points…

Is a reply still brewing, or have I sent you utterly back to the drawing board (from where I have also recently returned)?

I don’t have the language to express it, but the idea that a country or company, can just pay everyone loads of paper money and charge loads for it’s produce, sounds like inflation to me.
The UK is not a self reliant economy, and any sort of economy based on that, is an economy based on a false premise.

Borrowing Establishments - are ultimately “Inflationists”.

The Nazis - were perhaps the most infamous DEFlationists of the past century.

Empires - on the whole - are Inflationist as well.

We should be less concerned about re-obtaining a “Strong Pound” - and a lot more concerned about retaining our current near full-employment economy.

Take less holidays abroad, and stop slagging off ZHC work then!

Franglais:

Rjan:

Franglais:
I’ll look closer at your early points…

Is a reply still brewing, or have I sent you utterly back to the drawing board (from where I have also recently returned)?

I don’t have the language to express it, but the idea that a country or company, can just pay everyone loads of paper money and charge loads for it’s produce, sounds like inflation to me.

I haven’t argued for “paying everyone loads of paper money”. The purpose of all the measures I’ve described is not to magic up money, but to change the balance of bargaining power between workers and bosses, so that ultimately workers are paid more, and bosses (and the elite of the professional working classes) are paid considerably less.

The vast majority of CEOs, for example, are not paid at a level necessary to get the work done, but is the product of attacks on the working classes that have released large amounts of profits which allow firms to bid up pay for those at the top. Laying into CEO pay (and reducing the number of firms competing for their skills) will return wages to the workforce, without affecting the actual production done.

To take another example. A brutal attack on casual landlordism - which would release large amounts of pay for workers for alternative spending (without any increase in their wages) - will not lead to a reduction in housing stock or erode the production of housing.

It will simply force landlords back into productive employment at a normal wage, rather than living for free on the wages of workers which they tax via the rental mechanism.

The consequence of eliminating landlordism will either return houses into the hands of householders (from which they will extract no income) or it will cause consolidation into a smaller number of (perhaps social or council) landlords who perform the same rental function for far smaller amounts of rent and profit (and can do so because their scale increases administrative efficiencies and reduces overall risks).

Forcing massive amounts of loaned capital out of the housing market, will also either cheapen the cost of capital demanded for other uses, allowing real economic investments to be made at far lower cost, or the capital will be spent by its owners generating economic demand.

The UK is not a self reliant economy, and any sort of economy based on that, is an economy based on a false premise.

We need raw materials it is true, but by virtue of being an advanced economy capable of producing anything that currently can be produced, we do not need anything else.

And the vast majority of economies that do produce raw materials, are not our competitors, and we are perfectly capable of trading finished goods for those raw materials.

Competing with economies that are our competitors, without agreeing a stitch up and a fair distribution, simply leads to misery and dysfunction for workers.

We cannot possibly hope to compete with a third-world cannon fodder work force with less regulation, lower wages, and sheer higher numbers of bods prepared to do absolutely dire forms of employment just to put food on their tables in their countries.

Where we CAN compete is in “cutting edge” stuff such as High Tech, Science Education, Space/Ocean Exploration, and correcting any unintended future mistakes and setbacks before they occur with a decent despect for what has gone in the past as well. We learn from our historical mistakes, rather than “fearing to gamble, in case we don’t like the answers it gives us”.

Picture a scenario in the years to come where say, China accidentally cure a serious disease as a by-product unintended result of their long-held one-child policy, only to see that disease then make a comeback as it gets relaxed… Haemophilia - is carried by the female line for example, but manifests itself in male offspring. Years and years of Chinese Males only getting to breed with imported non-Chinese females - would surely lessen the impact of a disease such as Haemophillia then? Perhaps it would be possible one day to totally “Breed out” such a disease - surely a natural and inexpensive cure obtained by “social engineering” instead of huge expense hmm?

Our own workforce meanwhile - are living longer, with dwindling pension prospects, due to a corrupt financial “industry” over the past four decades in particular.
Who wants to live to be 100 if the pension is depleted soon after reaching retirement age, and one’s ever-more-difficult healthcare - gets taken straight out of one’s meagre pension-incomed pocket, merely because you “purchased your own house long ago”?

I expect to be retiring at 70. If I end up spending more years earning above what a full timer can get doing the same job - then I’m clearly going to be better off acting thus.

Perks from Full Time? - Name them!

We’ve got “Death in service benefit” that managers fail to sign off on automatically, so many families of deceased personnel - don’t ever get that “no quibble” payout.

We’ve got pensions that we’re told for the ever-higher payments we make into them - “will give us a comfortable retirement”. Yeh? - The so-called Pension Industry HOPES that enough of us will die before retirement each and every year - to leave enough of the original paid-in pot to provide SOME aspect of pension income, which is still a dwindling waterhole nonetheless. “Lack of Ambitious Investment” is the cause of this “Scandal” that’ll see many a company pension beneficiary get a whole lot less than they expected at retirement in 5-20 years time in particular… Mark my words!

Job Security? - Firms will “let you go” because they don’t agree with your politics these days. One too many “mean tweets”, or “got caught diddling your Iphone at work” even. Meanwhile, it seems impossible to lose one’s job when caught acting in a criminal manner, providing the firm is in on it, of course…

Then there’s that old chestnut “Contractual Abuse”…
This is when you cannot get the full time contract you actually want and need - but settle (out of fear of being unemloyed otherwise…) for some crappy work-balance affair that’ll drive you or someone else you eventually harm into an early grave… 84 hour week professional drivers and physicians - should be of concern to us ALL, and yet precious little is done to bring down the hours-per-week of these particular forms of employment, far apart in the education required for them as they are.

I continue to maintain that whilst a Doctor can help you get to your 100th birthday, only an infrastructure worker of which a driver is but one facet - upholds OUR country to a level where it’ll always be above a third-world lifestyle living that long.

Franglais:
Swingeing tariffs?
If we are on WTO they set the rates. We don`t set them.

If we trade under WTO the UK sets the rates of import duty. Each WTO member files a table of tariffs with the WTO which they have to charge all nations they don’t have a trade agreement with. There is no single table of tariffs at WTO HQ that it sets which every nation has to abide by, the UK controls its own rates, the EU theirs. That’s why the claims of the NHS suffering because of the import duty on medicine in the event of a hard brexit is one of the biggest load of bollox the remain side have come out with. The remain side also bang on about the price of food rocketing because of import tariffs, often quoting one of the highest that the EU applies which is to beef. Again, more fearmongering bollox as the UK govt is in control of the tariffs so what the EU has set on food is completely irrelevant as we would set our own.]

No doubt you want proof of what I say is true, that each member sets their own. Here you go, here’s the WTO tariff table look up. You’ll note you have to select the WTO member nation first and then download the tariff for a particular product. Download more than one table, compare them and you’ll find differences.

tariffdata.wto.org/Default.aspx?culture=en-US

Conor:

Franglais:
Swingeing tariffs?
If we are on WTO they set the rates. We don`t set them.

If we trade under WTO the UK sets the rates of import duty. Each WTO member files a table of tariffs with the WTO which they have to charge all nations they don’t have a trade agreement with. There is no single table of tariffs at WTO HQ that it sets which every nation has to abide by, the UK controls its own rates, the EU theirs. That’s why the claims of the NHS suffering because of the import duty on medicine in the event of a hard brexit is one of the biggest load of bollox the remain side have come out with. The remain side also bang on about the price of food rocketing because of import tariffs, often quoting one of the highest that the EU applies which is to beef. Again, more fearmongering bollox as the UK govt is in control of the tariffs so what the EU has set on food is completely irrelevant as we would set our own.]

No doubt you want proof of what I say is true, that each member sets their own. Here you go, here’s the WTO tariff table look up. You’ll note you have to select the WTO member nation first and then download the tariff. Download more than one table, compare them and you’ll find differences.

tariffdata.wto.org/Default.aspx?culture=en-US

Franglais:
So, individual member countries of the WTO each set there own WTO import tariffs and ‘register’ them with rhe WTO. Outside of approved trade agreements they must apply these equally to all other countries.

Yes, as you see I have already acknowledged and corrected my earlier error.

Who has made any comment about import tariffs on medicines?
Who had been “banging on about” UK food prices rising due to tariffs?
UK meat exports will be (subject to any deal) dearer in the EU because of their tariffs, and if we have a no tariff policy our domestic production could be undercut by low welfare imports, depending again on deals.
So, our meat industry could be hit in exports, and although consumers will maybe benefit by lower prices, producers could be hit.

Franglais:

Conor:

Yes, as you see I have already acknowledged and corrected my earlier error.

Who has made any comment about import tariffs on medicines?
Who had been “banging on about” UK food prices rising due to tariffs?
UK meat exports will be (subject to any deal) dearer in the EU because of their tariffs, and if we have a no tariff policy our domestic production could be undercut by low welfare imports, depending again on deals.
So, our meat industry could be hit in exports, and although consumers will maybe benefit by lower prices, producers could be hit.

Surely you’ll grant him the fact that the Remain campaign has constantly warned about food shortages, medicine shortages, and price rises in the UK (not price rises abroad).

These fear stories are mendacious or, at best, will be the product of gross management incompetence rather than intrinsic to the Brexit process.

Also, if our meat industry faces a competitive threat, the answer surely is to establish tariffs at a level where meat is predominantly produced domestically - there must be spare capacity to supply the domestic market, if we are currently exporters.

Rjan:

Franglais:

Conor:

Yes, as you see I have already acknowledged and corrected my earlier error.

Who has made any comment about import tariffs on medicines?
Who had been “banging on about” UK food prices rising due to tariffs?
UK meat exports will be (subject to any deal) dearer in the EU because of their tariffs, and if we have a no tariff policy our domestic production could be undercut by low welfare imports, depending again on deals.
So, our meat industry could be hit in exports, and although consumers will maybe benefit by lower prices, producers could be hit.

Surely you’ll grant him the fact that the Remain campaign has constantly warned about food shortages, medicine shortages, and price rises in the UK (not price rises abroad).

These fear stories are mendacious or, at best, will be the product of gross management incompetence rather than intrinsic to the Brexit process.

Also, if our meat industry faces a competitive threat, the answer surely is to establish tariffs at a level where meat is predominantly produced domestically - there must be spare capacity to supply the domestic market, if we are currently exporters.

We`ll let Conor himself show where anyone is talking of tariffs on imports shall we?

But on the subject of tariffs we currently have a government (subject to future elections) who speak of dropping tariffs more than introducing more or higher ones. Given it`s easy to drop tariffs and may take years to negotiate decent free trade deals, your talking of any increased tariffs is more wishful thinking than likely, surely?

Why are warnings of supply line threats “mendacious”?
Don`t they come from many quarters, not just those you style as leavers?

My concerns about meat production are based more on listening to farmers at 05hr45 most mornings on R4, not politicians of any stripe.
Look at this
projectblue.blob.core.windows.n … 19_WEB.pdf
Take note especially of what they describe here and elsewhere as carcass balance.
And when talking of possible new markets consider those already selling into those markets, and their proximity.

Franglais:

Rjan:

We`ll let Conor himself show where anyone is talking of tariffs on imports shall we?

But on the subject of tariffs we currently have a government (subject to future elections) who speak of dropping tariffs more than introducing more or higher ones. Given it`s easy to drop tariffs and may take years to negotiate decent free trade deals, your talking of any increased tariffs is more wishful thinking than likely, surely?

Well under the Tories I agree, they are likely to drop tariffs and thus lay into domestic producers.

But I hardly make any secret of my opposition to the Tories and frequently warn about their plans.

My concern is that the issue is becoming a wedge in the working class, and many Remainers are spending more time arguing that the Brexit process itself is misconceived rather than it being the Tories’ overall agenda which is malevolent.

Many of these hardline Remainers are as deeply opposed to left-wing politics as the radical-right are, and these divisions are harming the Labour party far more than the Tories, precisely because they are not arguing against Tory plans, but against the very principle of any sort of exit from the single market, which I am quite prepared to accept under a Labour government.

Why are warnings of supply line threats “mendacious”?
Don`t they come from many quarters, not just those you style as leavers?

They come almost entirely from Remainers, surely.

Obviously, there must be some economic reorganisation involved - people aren’t voting for Brexit in order for all things to stay exactly the same, are they?

It seems to me that the straightforward answer to most “supply line threats” is either to introduce more warehousing and local storage, or shorten the supply lines.

The world is not going to turn upside down because, say, Vauxhall cars has to build a larger warehouse on their assembly site - or, heaven forbid, actually move the production of the parts into Britain and create jobs here for workers at wages which workers here demand. Heaven forbid also that all those managers with company cars should actually have to pay a proper price for them to be produced, and cut the CEOs bonuses to pay for it.

I’ve already explained how our domestic car consumption far exceeds our production - we are a net importer of cars and car parts, not a net exporter. Assembly workers here gain nothing from the single market, except cut-price competition against their wages or the offshoring of their jobs entirely.

And if the argument is that factories will just move abroad entirely, then that is why we exit the single market and raise tariffs against imports, so that it’s no longer a choice for the bosses to offshore production when they don’t like having to pay proper wages.

And I don’t want to hear that this is the road to beggar-thy-neighbour, because the bosses are already beggaring us through their offshoring production whilst still expecting to sell back into our marketplace for consumption tariff-free, or their threats to do so if we do not beggar our own wages.

Unbridled competition with our economic peers in Europe is the root of beggar-thy-neighbour, just as unbridled competition between workers always means super-profits for the bosses and low wages for workers.

My concerns about meat production are based more on listening to farmers at 05hr45 most mornings on R4, not politicians of any stripe.
Look at this
projectblue.blob.core.windows.n … 19_WEB.pdf
Take note especially of what they describe here and elsewhere as carcass balance.
And when talking of possible new markets consider those already selling into those markets, and their proximity.

I couldn’t quite focus in on the point you were making with the link. But let us look at farming - you have absent landowners enriched by subsidy, and you have farm managers paying their workers a pittance to get production done. A relative of mine works in farming, as an employee, and has done all his life - he talks of wages deteriorating, and of farmers failing to invest in the next generation of skills. Another in-law with a background in farming (slightly younger, and without the same specialist skills) now sits at home as a house-husband because there is so little demand whilst the bosses import agricultural workers (of all skill types).

Why should workers be listening to what farm managers want, when what they want is almost invariably to buy labour low and sell produce high?

Rjan:

Franglais:

Conor:

Yes, as you see I have already acknowledged and corrected my earlier error.

Who has made any comment about import tariffs on medicines?
Who had been “banging on about” UK food prices rising due to tariffs?
UK meat exports will be (subject to any deal) dearer in the EU because of their tariffs, and if we have a no tariff policy our domestic production could be undercut by low welfare imports, depending again on deals.
So, our meat industry could be hit in exports, and although consumers will maybe benefit by lower prices, producers could be hit.

Surely you’ll grant him the fact that the Remain campaign has constantly warned about food shortages, medicine shortages, and price rises in the UK (not price rises abroad).

These fear stories are mendacious or, at best, will be the product of gross management incompetence rather than intrinsic to the Brexit process.

Also, if our meat industry faces a competitive threat, the answer surely is to establish tariffs at a level where meat is predominantly produced domestically - there must be spare capacity to supply the domestic market, if we are currently exporters.

Surely, we truckers of ALL people - should see every day about our workplaces - evidence that there is no shortage of anything, except perhaps decent pay and conditions among the full-time sector…