Political discussions...

OUT OF HOURS BULLY'S TRUCKSTOP BAR (INTERACTIVE)
1103

2k or 3k… A speculation estimate, like the 350m on the side of the bus.
A prediction about the future roll-out of to-come events is “Speculation” or more commonly known as a “Betting Opportunity”.

If someone states some future event as a Fait Accompli, and offers the public “Odds On” about that event, then THAT is a betting opportunity par excellance for a risk pundit like myself!

It doesn’t take the current polls to be THAT much wrong right now - for some big odds betting opportunities, for example:

I notice that THIS time around - the bookmakers are not giving out “High Field” things to bet upon, bar for Labour.
Eg. Where’s the price for the Tories to win 400+ seats?
…Or the tiered big prices for RUK to win 50+ or even 100+ seats, rather than “RUK to win more than 7 seats - 2/1”
RUBBISH odds that!

A bookmaker’s prime profits come from taking all bets on odds-on chances than then go onto LOSE.
They therefore treat EVERYONE as a “sucker not worthy of an even break”…

The Punter’s answer to that should be “Don’t back anything at odds of less than 10/1 minimum”. A mantra I stick to.

Current bets on the forthcoming election:
Labour to win 250-299 seats @ 66/1 (still available at 50/1)
The next government to be a Tory/Labour coalition (to shut out a resurgent RUK) 100/1 still available. (250/1 best price)

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/government-after-the-next-general-election

The interesting thing is, that these pundits that state confidently that RUK will “Stay on zero seats” - there’s even betting opportunities based on THAT…

“Tories to win the most seats” (i.e. not win outright) 33/1
If RUK stay on zero you see, the Tories clearly are NOT going to be losing even 100 seats, let alone 200+!!
You can’t have it both ways. Either all other parties advance to run over the Tories, and pick their bones - OR they stay as they are, with only a handful of seats changing hands, and a disappointing “hung parliament” result for Keir Starmer’s Labour, likely to be immediately given the push by Raynor…

The Debate event the other night - even had Raynor agreeing with Farage on energy policy, and “not smacking him in the face” all the time like the Greens and SNP tried to.

I predict that RUK might well advance more to the demise of the Libdems, Greens, and SNP than the under-performance of Labour in this coming election.

We might even see a situation where Labour win a comfortable majority, but not as big as hoped, with Farage’s RUK as the new official Opposition Party, the Greens, Libdems, SNP being all but wiped out like the Belgium election across the weekend…

PM of Belgium has blown up (Ruling Liberals win only 5% of the vote)
Macron of France has called a snap election he’s likely to get blown up in (Marine le Pen surges to 31.5%, En Marche drops to 15%)_
and of course Geert Wilders surgers in the Dutch poll as well.

Farage’s last word the other night was
“The next government - is going to be Labour.”
He’s working on that basis.
We’ve got David Lammy, Labour’s safest Seat of all - in talks with the GOP in America, presumably preparing for how Labour can best work with a future… TRUMP administration…!

There’s a sea-change in the air folks!

What do Labour AND the Right have in common right now?

“Improve public services. Shorten NHS waiting lists. Build more social housing” (Labour)
“Strip the Foreign Aid Budget as close to zero as possible to pay for everything” (RUK)
I can see Labour in power - taking a leaf out of RUK’s book, and stealing their fire here…

If Labour go on now to complete Brexit, rather than reverse it - there won’t be any need to raise taxes, cut public spending, or borrow more with interest rates already painfully high - will there?

It might mean Raynor quickly dispatching Keir Starmer once he’s got the keys to number 10 - but hey, these things happen in politics - Right?

1104

This is exactly the same bet I made on Corbyn’s Labour in the 2017 election, except I got 40/1 on that. Corbyn was widely expected to lose between 50 and 100 seats, and odds on favorite to lose… He DID lose, but when I saw the prospect of him gaining a few seats (he got 262 if memory serves) - priced up like THAT - I thought it was worth a tenner risk for a week’s wages to win…

Labour are ONLY going to poll less than 300 seats IF the Tories lose less than 100 seats.
They are currently expected to lose 200+. Again, you cannot have it both ways.
The recent Council elections saw the Tories lose less than 500 seats, anticipated to be over 1000.
I would be as disappointed as anyone - if Sunak manages to hold onto triple digits of seats, and indeed all my bets go down if they do…
The odds are good though, and there’s still 3 weeks to go for sunak to make even more gaffes, and throw even more tory seats away in the process…

I’m confident the pollsters don’t have to be far wrong for just ONE of my bets to go in here…
Don’t wish me luck - I don’t need it.
This is a calculated risk based on what I can afford to bet with (<£50) and what kind of payout I’d like for taking such a high risk (a week’s wages and upwards - will do)

MY risk profile, if you will.

1105

They were expected to loose over 1,000 seats?
They started out with 989.

1106

no probability needed.

if i have 1000 pounds in my pocket and i want a new car that costs 1500 i am 500 short. end of.

if i say i will increase my food allowance by x% again it is easily calculated how much i need. so on and so forth be it teachers or nurses or some other harebrained thought out scheam

1107

Obviously I do put them all in the same category. If some think that is unfair, I can live with that. People can choose not to take any medicine, that’s not the issue, it’s the lunacy that was seen in respect of the Covid vaccines - and seen in spades here on TN too - this has propelled anti-vaxxing to the forefront of all the conspiracy theories, and CT’s do tend to get my goat (absolutely zero patience).

The reason more deaths weren’t seen was surely in part due to the several lockdowns, and it was just as much about not overwhelming the NHS as it was about saving lives. I doubt society would submit to lockdowns again, so the next pandemic (whenever it comes) will be a lot different.

I’ll accept your point on Thalidomide; the US FDA were on the ball enough to never have approved it in the first place, but we’ve come a long way since it was first used in the early 50’s and withdrawn from use in 1961. At the time it was introduced we didn’t know that medicines could cross the placenta and affect the unborn. This tragedy changed drug marketing and testing across the globe, so it is unlikely anything like that could happen again.

1108

So what’s the answer then?

Where does Labour get this gain from that propels them to majority government?

Poll trackers seem to show that Ex Tory voters that voted Leave are suddenly giving up on Brexit in droves, and supporting Labour…

If that’s true, we’re done as a country…
Labour won’t be raising cash by taking on Farage’s policies after all, they’ll be raising it the old-fashioned ways of

Raising Taxes, starting with those paid by those earning more than minimum wage (i.e. ALL of us on this board…)
Closing down public services, hopefully not used by people that used to vote Labour beforehand.
and
Borrowing More, enhanced by once-more being lickcocks to China and the CCP.
This will require interest rates exceed 10% asap. That’s on the cards anyways, I suspect - hence why Sunak has called an election this early, despite the notion that he’s going to get killed… An election later in the year - would result more likey in a hung parliament where RUK perform much better…

I’ve yet to see a pollster even asking someone else the question… Where do I have to go to explain to them that they really need to consider increasing their sample size?

1109

Update on the tax malarkey, courtesy of a Tory spokesperson on R4 this morning (missed their name): Tax increases are now said to be “baked in” to our future, this is backed up by OFS apparently

Tory-boy said it’s going up £3000 regardless of it being Labour or Tories who win, the alleged Labour 2k (which Amol Rajan pointed out had been rubbished by many economists already) is apparently “above and beyond” the “baked in” £3,000

Shhhh… What’s that sound in the distance? Is that Coop’s head exploding due to taxation information overload? :smile:

1110

So it has taken them four days to work out how they arrived at the £2,000 figure?
Was the scrap of paper with their workings on it lost somewhere amongst all of shiny new trade deals?

If I will have to pay £2,000 over a Parliament, that is about £500 a year, or £10 quid a week…less than a cup of coffee per day…to get some semblance of funding for the NHS, Schools, Defence etc than I consider that good value for money.

But of course the £2,000 was based on assumptions made by Tory politicians about future actions made by a different party, who have yet to release their manifesto.

Strange how some people will buy a nice car and say “You get what you pay for”, but want a decent NHS and no queues at the GP surgery, yet vote to save a few quid a month in taxes?

1111

LibDems have a “plan” (ie whacky, late-night drink-or-drug-fuelled pipedream) that if some miracle happened and they got elected, they would get all this extra taxes from big businesses and not from Joe Public.
“Oi, Ed Davy, stop bogarting the spliff…”

1112

Quote: Zac :… ‘‘Obviously I do put them in the same category’’
‘‘People can choose not to take
any medicine, that’s not the issue’’

Yep…Ok you first appeared to disagree with my point about anti vaxxers all being in one category, then you more or less repeated what I said.
Maybe it was me who did not explain myself properly…So.

I am anti vax, not because I think it is going to turn us into the clones of the invading Lizard Men from Planet Zog, or that it is really some sort of liquid microchip to keep Orwellian tabs on us all, or because I will receive the wrath of some god or another if I do.

It is because (I’m actually embarrased to say) I was initially taken in by most of the media hype, while being kept of work by the govt virtually telling us life will be never be as we know it again.:roll_eyes:

So I went out and got a jab, THEN looked all around me, THEN listened to what others around me were saying, and noted things did not correlate with what I was being told, or led to believe…Basically things were not as tragic or as potentially apocalyptic as they were trying to tell me/us.

People I knew personally who had died from it (or with it) were already weak with other bad health issues.

The local leisure centre …that had been turned into an Army Field hospital ffs !:flushed: to receive ‘all the dying masses’ remained empty and unused week after week after week, until it was turned back to normal…(very quietly and discreetly I noted btw.)

The obvious counter argument to that is '‘Well that proves the jabs worked then’, Hey! , maybe many did, but my instincts tell me they severely effed up with the perceived enormity of it all.
Over cautious does not begin to cover literally closing the whole country down,.and keeping the population off the streets and off work.

So to sum up, that is the reason I had no more jabs, and never will.
So.all that, plus the latest revelations of many people having bad adverse effects, with no doubt more to come, could go to label me as an ‘anti vaxxer’…but not a nut job.
(Last sentence is open to opinion from others btw :joy:)

Dont believe we are discussing effin Covid AGAIN :roll_eyes:,.Frangers will be digging his mask out when he sees it…if he aint STILL wearing it.:smiley:

1113

Errrr… who was it that mentioned this topic in in this thread in a reply to someone else?

No I don’t want to go over the whole covid and vaccination topic again.
I have no problem with people choosing their own actions, but I did have a huge problem with all the people on here who believed that their C+E entitlement trumped the qualifications of Jonathan Van-Tam and Chris Whitty.

So maybe those of us who can at least agree its not a subject we want to resurrect, can get back to talking about the numpties in suits who are so keen to persuade us they are worthy of our votes?

1114

Aye fair enough, without looking back I’m assuming you mean me.
In mitigation it was only mentioned in the context of Johnsons term in office, in the spirit of the topic.

I too got sick of hearing about it, like other stuff it should be left in the past as a memory.

1115

Ok then.

Operation Cygnus and Operation Alice were before Johnson being PM, but were whilst Tories were the Gov. They both showed up (when eventually we the public saw them) that there were serious deficiencies in supply and preparedness for viruses etc. The Gov did nothing to rectify the situation.

Given that the Gov failed to be prepared they then set up the “fast track” supplier scheme. What a catalogue of failure and money wasted! Buddies, even a pub landlord, had money thrown at them for often usable crap.
Did the Gov try to recover funds from this ** scheme**? No.
Credit to Lord Agnew who resigned in protest. Not all Tories are scheming, thieving, liars.

Test and Trace: a functioning system was abandoned while Dido Harding (another buddy) was given shed loads of money to produce…nothing.
A failed phone company boss oversaw a failed tech scheme. Who could have guessed?

Eat Out To Help Out. A scheme fro Sunak and the treasury approved by Johnson.
Oh, and the medical scientific were only to find out about it when it was announced to the public!

In the interests of balance the UK was the first to approve a vaccine.
Bloody good work by the scientists involved.

NB. If you want to argue about vaccines I will be happy to elsewhere, but since we are here to discuss as you said, Johnson’s performance, how is the above for a start?
And I know I left out him lying to the Queen, illegally proroguing Parliament, misleading Parliament, and being a cowardly quitter,
but I need to go and get a breath of fresh air.

1116

:flushed:Ffs Frangers, cool it will ya, calm yerself down man :roll_eyes:

Operation Cygnus? Operation Alice?
Aint got a kin scooby what tf you are rabbitting on about mate…seriously.

As for Lord Harding &Dilldo Agnew??
Nah not even on my radar mate.

I merely pointed out ‘‘MY’’ take on,.and what ‘‘I’’ saw and witnessed myself on the pantomime that was the Covid crisis, I didnt expect an in depth specialist subject all in lecture on it all, even from you…but maybe did expect the obligatory Frangers anti tory routine.

I would not DARE to question your bizzare specialist subject expertise on the subject mate.
As I have constantly ponted out to you…
Too much time on yer hands bud.

Ffs/Jeeez H.:roll_eyes:
:joy::joy::joy:

1117

Well if you didn’t witness the £37,000,000,000 that was given to Harding ?
Fine.
It does take a lot of skill at avoiding current affairs, and studious amounts of concentration to stick your head that far into the sand, but if you choose to be ignorant?

I admire your bravery in putting up posts that expose your ignorance on subjects that you express opinons on. And your apparent pride in such.
Sir Humphrey might even call it “Courageous”

However ignorant of his massive mess-ups as you are, the mess-ups made by Johnson are still there for anyone with an open pair of eyes to see.

And you seeking to defer from those mess-ups to my posting style is also apparent.
You can’t dispute what I have said? You seek to make remarks about the poster.
Clearly an ad hominen attack.

1118

I see that Farage has cancelled a Panorama interview tonight.
A “diary confusion” issue, apparently.

So is he incompetent at running his own life (yes) and can’t manage to keep a diary and cancels a national TV interview?
Or is he frit of questions about his party candidates actually thinking that Hitler was a bit OK really?

1119

Oh Jeez I’ve REALLY got under his skin…again.:smiley:
You should not get so easily upset mate.
3 times he uses the word ‘ignorant’ describing me, in his usual ‘air of superiority manner’…and from the guy who continuosly labels ME as a drama queen.

Heres another ‘ad hominen’ errr , you describe it as ‘attack’ in your usual dramatic way,.I prefer ‘observation’.
Your patronisation and condescending manner is off the scale me old mate.
Get down to earth and off yer high horse …you are just like me in respect of you only (or used to) drive a ckin truck.

1120

Ah… the wonderful Nige. He’s causing a new phrase (new to me at least) to enter the political world, “Dogwhistle politics”. Apparently this means a message sent in a frequency that will only be picked up by certain listeners, so the “I can take you to two streets in Oldham where no one speaks English” was aimed at his potential voters in Clacton, aiming to whip up a spot of fear it will happen in their streets.

He’s certainly more interesting (if only for analysing) than his competitors are. Mishal still easily got the better of him though in the recent Today interview. :sunglasses:

1121

I am truly sorry if you are so upset.

Anything to say about Johnson in power? An issue you brought up.

1122

No need to use actual words. nor use facts, to get a message across in his world.
In fact when words are used, and ideas expressed it is all too easy to dispute them, so it isn’t likely he will start anytime soon.

He is the right wing equivalent of hawkers of dream-catchers and scented candles.