Now you know how I felt at the last election: no way was I going to vote for Corbyn, I simply couldn’t bring myself to vote for Boris the Buffoon, so was compelled to give my vote to that other lot, who I knew didn’t have a chance anyway. Whatever happened to them?
Some say…and it is far from impossible… that the Tories could be the 3rd party at the next election.
I am not saying it is likely, but it seems possible.
Although ReformLtd seem to have a bigger slice of the national vote than the Greens, it is likely that they will have zero MPs whilst Greens retain their one seat still. Such is FPTP.
Reform UK, from the man who brought you “Brexit…”
Tells me everything I need to know about this bunch
I’ve got a tenner on the next government being one of “National Unity”, i.e. a Labour-Tory coalition… Think that can’t happen?
What happens if RUK become the third biggest party, gaining more seats than the rest combined beneath them? Eg. Libdems get 10-20 seats, SNP get 20-30 seats, and RUK get around 70-80 seats?
Now picture a scenario where the Tories lose their majority, and Keir Starmer gains seats, but still finishes second to the Tories…
The Tories have lost enough seats so that they dare not attempt a minority government (although I’ve got money on that as well…)
Both parties would rather stick pins in their eyes than go into coalition with RUK…
What’s left? A Lab-Con Coalition - it’s gotta be.
Even a rainbow coalition of Lab +all the others BAR RUK leaves them short, ditto Con + all the others bar RUK…
The interesting thing about this scenario, is that if it happens, I don’t just win a grand, but this country would have done the same as Germany in that they make the anti-establishment party the official OPPOSITION at that point…
That’s a lot of power to a party that’s only just gained a foothold in parliament, I reckon…
Then there’s Wilders in Holland who’s party has just won the most seats - but he cannot set up a government, because no one will go into coalition with him, and it’s impossible to get a majority under the Dutch voting system… Effectively, Holland is now in a state of permanent anarchy until one of the parties collapses, leaving the rest to pick off the bones, and enlarge their own bloc to include such new people that WILL go into coalition with the largest party, rather than just write them off as “fascists” all the time.
I don’t believe that “regular” labour voters switched away from Labour TO the Tories “because it was Corbyn”. That’s why I also had a successful tenner on Corbyn gaining seats in 2017 because he mustered the Anti May vote FROM the Tories, or rather the Tories failed to pick up the 3.5m voters that shifted from UKIP (down from 4m in 2015 to .5m in 2017) whilst Corbyn expected to lose dozens of seats - actually gained in the popular vote, and picked up seats…
I predict something similar will happen in THIS election as in 2017…
How well RUK do is connected to how badly the Tories do - NOT how well Labour do. Most of their support - won’t be coming from there, will it?
In 2019, people as you say, voted Tory rather than for anything with Farage in it to “stop Corbyn”. It didn’t help that Farage and Tice were bluffed into throwing their hand away, by standing down in all those seats they will easily win THIS time around, as they’ve learned their lesson.
It doesn’t MATTER if Starmer wins this election, you see… The chance “Vote RUK - Get Labour” isn’t as scary now as it was in 2019 you see, - by your own arguments here.
That’s why I reckon the time has come for RUK.
I don’t believe these polls that suggest “Tories lose 126 seats, Labour win 120 of those, the Libdems Six, RUK stay on Zero”.
What poppycock!
Democrats tactically voted for Nikki Haley during the Primaries everywhere they legally could…
These voters don’t even vote Democrat in the main elections, but were happy to tactically vote to try and sabotage the Enemy primary, perfectly legal to attempt in many areas…
I’d be surprised if Labour voters don’t do the same in those wards where they are currently third (behind Tory incumbent, Libdem in Second) place… Voting RUK to get them over the line, and cause the hated Tories to lose a seat that they’ll KEEP if Labour voters think it’s clever to bolster their low-4 figure poll to low+1000 figure poll, and get past the Libdems maybe, but still have the Tories hold the seat with RUK in second place from nowhere beforehand, as they didn’t stand in 2019…
I don’t think one can sell RUK to a Labour “no matter what” voter.
I agree that it is possible.
I disagree in that you don’t think it’s “Likely”, but I do.
I disagree entirely that RUK will stay on zero seats.
There’s no Corbyn to scare people into holding their noses, and voting Tory again like they did in 2017 and 2019.
There’s no Brexiteers left in the Tory party that want the job. Forget Ha’penny Mordant… She’s just another deep state creature. Forget Moggs - He’s nowhere near popular enough.
The best result would be Sunak holds on to the bitter end, and reduces the Tories to a double-digit rump…
It’s time for Brexiteers to team up with Labour voters and totally bust the tories out of Parliament altogether.
Would Labour voters rather have a clear Starmer win with the Tories down to <100 seats, OR would Labour rather have a slightly larger majority, with a Tory opposition of OVER 100 seats?
A large enough block of RUK would keep the Tories off Labour’s back for years to come… Labour don’t need to worry, as they’re guaranteed to win a majority, as that’s what the polls say - isn’t it?
It is only the Tories that should be scared of RUK. Labour need to be scared of the Tories not losing enough seats TO RUK…
It’ll reduce Labour’s power in the next government…
Forget the greens. They are now seen as “part of the cause” of the cost of living crisis…
Pothole damage due to heavier EV cars…
Unsaleable EV cars…
Expensive EV cars…
Expensive to charge EV cars…
Expensive Energy prices in general…
Unnecessary proxy war with Fossil Fuel Giant Russia, serving the Green agenda, but not the National one…
Overly expensive “carbon” committments…
Wokeness chasing all of the above…
So which seats are Reform UK Ltd, likely to win?
Because of our FPTP system it seems that RUK Ltd will get more votes than the LibDems, but far fewer seats.
RUK Ltdn currently have 30p Lee/LeeAnderthal/KeeKlukKlanderson as MP but he is currently polling below both Labour and Tories.
Brexit is a long way down the list of priorities for most voters now. I still find it a very fascinating subject, but the main parties are not using it much in their campaigns.
I’ve already said. Any seat where Labour are currently third, (2019 results) rather than second. That’ll be a lot of South Tory seats, and a few Libdem ones (where Tory were second in 2019) on top…
There’s a question mark over the North, as they might - or might not tactically vote to get rid of what would be EXTRA Tories…
I don’t see Labour winning much of a majority though, as I would expect the Tories needing to lose 2 seats for each ONE Labour gained from them.
Labour’s gains will likely be in Urban areas. They will still likely win more seats than they have now, but it isn’t guaranteed they’ll win a majority, hence why Bookmakers are standing Labour to lose them an absolute fortune in the betting markets… A hung parliament - would have the bookmakers absolutely clean-up, indeed…
This isn’t about RUK winning a majority, winning the most seats, or even finishing second… It’s about them winning more seats than the other minor parties combined, thus shutting Labour and Tory alike out of ALL possible coalition permutations other than LabCon “Government of National Unity” leaving RUK as the official opposition as “Clear Third Party not in Government”.
Tactically, that’s the best play for RUK. Win all your seats from the Tories, and a few extra from the Libdems in Brexiteer areas where Tories are second in 2019, and Labour cannot win those seats…
Forget Anderson - all guns will be trained upon him to get busted out of that seat, like Reckless and Carswell were.
RUK’s best chances - are overturning a big Tory majority where Labour are currently third. Labour might gain an extra thousand votes, but that shouldn’t be enough to get them past any surge for RUK.
People like Damien Hinds in East Hampshire, for example, or Gillian Keegan in Chichester…
It’ll be far easier for RUK to turf them out than Labour from third place to do so…
franglais
5 April |
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winseer:
I disagree entirely that RUK will stay on zero seats.
So which seats are Reform UK Ltd, likely to win?
Because of our FPTP system it seems that RUK Ltd will get more votes than the LibDems, but far fewer seats.
RUK Ltdn currently have 30p Lee/LeeAnderthal/KeeKlukKlanderson as MP but he is currently polling below both Labour and Tories.
Ashfield | UK Polling Report
The latest forecast for Ashfield
Brexit is a long way down the list of priorities for most voters now. I still find it a very fascinating subject, but the main parties are not using it much in their campaigns.
My question was about RUK Ltd winning just one seat.
Give us the name of those you think they have the best chance.
I think it possible they will win one or two seats. I think it likely they will win none.
Edit. And how can they have more seats than the other minor parties combined if they are not 1st or 2nd?
Normally the square root of minus one is designated as i maybe we need a new number for WS numbers?
i dunno. as i said before i grew up just outside sevenoaks in a very strong conservative area the next village along chartwell house was in the next village over. Everyone loved thatcher you get the idea.
when ukip came on the scene (2015 election?) you couldn’t move in the village for purple stickers in peoples windows and rosettes pinned to their chests and placards.
https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3721/election/377
https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3721/election/397
Just because some groups make a lot of noise, doesn’t mean the actual votes follow suit.
here is the one from 2015 
https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3721/election/369
ukip got 17.9% of the vote with an upswing of 14.3%
admittedly it appears that the votes came from labor and liberal democrates
Fair comment.
You did say 2015, but I only went back two elections.
My mistake. Sorry.
It appears Sevenoaksa will stay Tory 2024, but that Labour will take the rest of Kent.
No mention of ReformUK Ltd.
Surveys etc are not hard fact of course, but it appears there will be big changes in many areas.
looks like the wicked witch of the west will keep her seat. Thing is in the area i am now all the politions seem lazy and bone idle even for the local council. Only once since living here for 13 years have i had more than one party come knock on my door. Normaly the current party sends a flyer out saying how wonderful they are (nothing about future plans) and thats it.
I think the map shows what i have been saying and fearfull of. too many people that dont remember what it was like before with blair and a strong influence from the dispelled london folk and other countries.
and from what i can see it isn’t outwardly being made a party issue either. However it will be affected by party beliefs.
Yep all those years of falling NHS queues and rising GDP.
What days, eh?
Of course it wasn’t perfect, but real life never is.
I was doing better under Blair than under Thatcher or Cameron etc and I believe the majority of the country was.
And
I think it was first me who said that Brexit down on the list of priorities for voters, and provided a link to a YouGov chart. The most important issues facing the country
WS keeps on mentioning it as if it is a major thing. For some people it is very big, for most it isn’t at the moment.
The major parties are saying little about it.
Is that not because Kent saw a lot more of our foreign friends, due to the proximity of Dover? Even going back the the early 2000’s, I was quite taken aback by the unabashed anti-foreigner sentiments among my scuba diver buddies originating from Kent.
partly yes and the beginning of the ethnic cleansing of london. thatcher joining the eu as much as she did and then blair did a lot of damage to kent.
Eh? Ethnic cleansing? You mean there were cattle trucks at Paddington and St Pancras shipping people off to camps? Or mass executions and mass burials in The Home Counties? Is the BNP still extant in your neck of the woods?
UK membership of the EU began 1st January 1973, Thatcher came to power 3rd May 1979
How and when did he do whatever it is you think he did? And can you supply some source material?
im genuinely surprised you haven’t heard of it it was my understanding that a lot were being shipped up north. Have you not heard about the gentrification of london. foreign investors (read Arab and Chinese) are buying up huge chunks of “the peoples london” for want of a better term and shipping out the black and Indian communities all in the name of giving them somewhere better to live of course tearing down the tower blocks then building luxury executive boxes.
it wasn’t the eu until 93 and thatcher didn’t want to join it im sure i have seen a better link than this before but for the sake of quickness No. No. No. (Margaret Thatcher) - Wikipedia
farmers were given subsidies to let their land go fallow all in the name of over production of food stuffs.
i can just about remember ( a very vague recollection of it of “aunt” edriss coming down to pick the fruit and hops soon as the common agricultural policy came in that pretty much stopped because the farmers could get more money for doing nothing than selling their fruit etc.
if you want the damage of what blair did by opening the flood gates read back on this topic