Never mind basic economics, basic numeracy is sadly lacking.
I re-read “Innumeracy” by John Allen Paulus from time to time, to remind myself that I don’t just automatically understand stuff.
It was heartening to me to hear David Spiegelhalter the other day saying that he sometimes has to sit down with a paper and pencil and just write things down when dealing with chance and probability.
OK, he is dealing with far more complex issues than I ever will and will get a better answer much quicker, but his point is that chance/probability/risk are not things that we humans grasp instinctively.
Strange how some readily admit “I’m no good with numbers” but are horrified that someone could possibly misquote a sonnet, or split an infinitive. (Which is actually not wrong!)
if i buy a house in 2011 for 230 and i sell it 12 years later for 430 i have made 200k in 12 years. Yes if i wanted to buy a similar house in the same area it will cost 430 or i could take that equity in the form of a mortgage and buy another small house and rent it out.
the other way to do it is to buy a property and add value to it so when you come to sell its worth more than other houses in the area.
if a parent of 2 kids has a property when they die and the kids inherit they can sell and use the money as a deposit and therefore have a smaller mortgage there are many many ways in which to make it work
of course franglais plan of destroying the housing market by lowering prices and building affordable homes means anyone that has bought a house then looses out if not ending up in negative equity
If they die at about the UK average age, 82, I think their “kids” would have already sorted themselves a home out somehow!
Many older people take equity out on their homes to finance retirement. Because they have been paying for housing they have not been able to pay into a pension.
When I was in my early twenties I was able to save for a deposit and pay a mortgage. How many can do that today? I didn’t need to wait until my sixties when my parents expired.
I wouldn’t imagine that the housing bubble will collapse soon. But it still might.
All investments can go down as well as up.
I still say that building more affordable homes is good for the country and the majority of people in it.
If people put themselves in debt, and their gamble on the housing market does not pay off? Sorry, but tough.
Buy houses to live in, not as (big) casino chips.
thats what my house was bought for and what next door went for when it was sold last year but theirs is mid terrace where as mine is end terrace with a garage.
apparently they have managed to sort themselves out
i would also argue that if the parents die at 82 the kids are unlikely to be in their 60’s
but it isnt a gamble its a sensible investment its only if some loony toon wanna be communist gets in that will screw it up
So your “sensible investment” depends on housing for the next generation growing faster than inflation, and so getting further out of the reach of others. Your investment depends on someone else’s housing poverty.
What a way to run a country!
Who is the lunatic?
nope not at all it depends on not filling every single bit of land around with social housing and affordable housing so it gets flogged off to the social housing companies (yes companies) that fill it with the dross from london that go round smashing up the aminieties and causing anti social issues so no one can sell their homes.
which is why i bought in an area that cant be directly expanded there is no where to build. Although recently some idiot from london bought a scrap of land between this estate and the neighboring property going cheap because it was about 100 yards long and 2 yards wide with no access and thought she could build a block of flats on it
I think i am going to have this issue. I either vote ruk which may have a chance of winning a seat in this area but nothing in terms of parliament or i have to vote for that stupid cow whately who i detest
You don’t like that houses are built at an affordable price?
You don’t like that houses are built at all?
As I said your “sensible investment” relies on housing inflating more than the general economy, and that means keeping supply short.
And is it true or not, that without an inheritance you as a truck driver would not be able to buy a first house? Or at least not have bought a £200k house in 12 years?
Have a guess first, but how much of the UK is housing? 10%, 20%, more, less?
Then have a look at the stats.
You do realise that inheriting enough money to pay off your mortgage is not a common occurence? Your housing market philosophy would therefore seem to be based on the old “I’m all right Jack” concept
It’s Band E, it shouldn’t be hard to find out who the local authority is, and the range of council taxes for the various bands in the various subsections of that LA should be available online.
Or, find the postcode (Royal Mail website is good for this) and input it here
no i object to this premise that labor brought in that you have to build x% of social housing amongst private housing for want of a better term. it doesn’t work.
when have i ever said i wasn’t fortunate and lucky. your right as a truck driver i couldn’t of paid off 200k in 12 years that would be approximately half my salary at todays rates which obviously wernt available in 2011
however if i wanted to buy a house now a 100 % mortgage would mean i could borrow 3.5 times my earnings which is 175k which would get me on the property ladder. if i was married obviously my wifes earnings would be taken into account as well so that figure would be higher.
in the south east too much is housing. look at a satellite map of the north kent coast the houseing stretches from london to ramsgate with a small break at higham and another at ospringe
@franglais i do disagree with how mortgages are calculated which has nothing to do with house prices. i fail to understand how someone that pays 1800 per month rent cant afford a mortgage of 1200
A commercial decision by banks and those who lend money of course.
Because someone has managed to pay £1800 last year, doesn’t mean they will be able to do so next year.
Of course they may well feel it is obvious they can, but the lenders have seen thousands of prospective borrowers in our position they only themselves.
Lenders do know more than us.
People like living in nice places?
No ■■■■ Sherlock!
Overall, residential land and gardens take up under 6% of land in the UK.
Isn’t it local planning planning authorities that decide what is/isn’t the proportion of social/private housing in developments?
What exactly is broken in your view?
The Tories have had 14 years to change any old Labour laws they don’t like remember!
nope sorry its the london overspill. the likes of whately has consistently done deals with the london councils taking their displaced council tenants where they have flogged off the land to outside developers. The councils then pay the local authority the rent for a set number of years.
what along side sorting out the bankrupt country the job market and everything else. but your right they could of changed the law and now have looking at the new builds around here.
are you telling me that if they built an estate next to where you live that put extra drain on the local resources ie schools and doctors etc etc and all the anti social aspects so it meant that you couldn’t sell your home or at the very least the value went down you would be happy that you cant get a doc appointment and the hospital is bulging at the seams and that the schools are over crowded and little old ladys are scared to go to the shops?
When was the country bankrupt?
Have you been taking lessons in pearl-clutching and swooning from someone?
The population is increasing. If it didn’t the economy would be in really bad shape. We rely on an increasing population in the current western capitalist system.
Like it or lump it, that is the way it is.
I do agree very strongly that there has been a serious lack of investment in Schools Hospitals, Local Health, etc.
More housing needs more facilities. Obviously.
The “market will sort it out” fan boys have got it wrong. It hasn’t.
It is wrong to build houses without extra amenities, that does not mean it is wrong to build extra housing.
Little old ladies have always been worried about going to the shops.
The stats are full of anomalies, but they do not show a great increase in most crimes, well apart from www fraud anyway.
Now we have “Hoodies” we used to have “Skinheads” and “Teddy Boys”.
Homicide rate in the UK is fairly low now, compared to previous eras.
But we also have 24hr rolling news and camera phones, what is there is much more visible.
Whilst it would be nice to see some Labour voters swing behind RUK, I can’t imagine it happening in a big way - except for the “Tactical” option, where Labour are third or fourth in the seat, and a vote for anyone OTHER than RUK - means the Tories keep that seat - or even lose it to the Libdems, if it is a Remainer area.
