Good post…and fwiw I agree for the most part on your analysis on the Political state of the Middle East, it is just a matter of time until it all kicks off, all engineered and orchestrated carefully in this direction over the past few years.
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Can’t fault ironstipper’s analysis. Governments and NGOs will continue to kick the can down the road in the hope of a softer landing, which isn’t going to happen 
I don’t blame it on Thatcher. She might have been responsible from moving us off an industrial base to a service base one, but the manufacturing base just would not have coped with the cheap industrial labour now avialable in the east for the last quarter century anyways.
I agree the fiscal cliff will probably be fudged with a last minute deal where Obama is told “face a vote of no confidence BY THE HOUSES” rather than his prefered option of simply going to the people again. Faced with immediate removal by his peers, he’ll back down and let the rich get away with the proposed raised taxes on the “compromise” that the cuts part of the deal are implemented in full. Can’t have the top nobs cleaning up their own mess can we? - Let alone PAYING for it!
Gold & Oil to rise?
When countries, firms, and indivuduals can’t raise cheap funds anymore by borrowing, they’ll be disposing of assets to raise cash instead.
Threre’s not much point in selling stuff at rock bottom prices, so as a contrarian, I suggest that top-dollar precious metals and distillates will fall in price, those being the preferred “sell a little to raise a lot” disposable items to come in vogue…
Iran will be flooding the market, rather than cutting it’s own nose off to spite it’s face by cutting supply. Oil priced in Euros is a ■■■■■■■■■ for Imadinnerjacket, but it ain’t gonna happen.
The far east will keep the GBP,USD and Euro propped up to keep western exports over-priced, and debts repayable in hard currency still.
The so-called expected collapse in western fiat money isn’t going to happen either, at least all the time we’re still being paid in it.
The only thing keeping the oil complex propped up is projected far eastern demand (already started a downturn? - I agree there.) and of course the middle east factor, mostly priced in already. It’s only the dwindling number of market manipulators that are keeping prices up this high as it is imo.
Debt: I’ve already said that interest rates have been kept low to make debt service payments affordable. Raise rates, and the lenders will see mass defaults on a scale not seen since the early 1930’s. 2018 for rates to get past 1% in this country I reckon. Any attempt to jump the gun on rate hikes will drive more than one western country (especially this one) from triple-dip recession into full-blown depression.
We’ve apparently had the best christmas ever in retail - yeh online maybe, with the untaxed monies going abroad maybe…
Work wise? - I’ve been “given” two seperate shifts today, by different agencies, and had them both cancelled the same day. It’s not even new year yet, and the cold north wind is already blowing the chill of zero work for weeks in - last year being bad enough. Most likely I’ll be taking some holiday over the next few weeks, 'cos there’s nowt to be had…
Winseer:
I don’t blame it on Thatcher. She might have been responsible from moving us off an industrial base to a service base one, but the manufacturing base just would not have coped with the cheap industrial labour now avialable in the east for the last quarter century anyways.
Yea, plus she helped to liberate eastern Europe, in the bad old days before Maggie Thatcher eastern Europeans weren’t allowed to travel and as we all know life was far worse for the British working-class before Stanislav and Boris arrived to help us out. 
I wasn’t referring to eastern europeans coming here to work, but the far eastern factories that kick out goods we just can’t make and compete with any more. 
Yes, but Thatcher and Reagan fought to liberate eastern Europe and succeeded. They sowed the wind and now we are reaping the whirlwind.
Winseer:
I don’t blame it on Thatcher. She might have been responsible from moving us off an industrial base to a service base one, but the manufacturing base just would not have coped with the cheap industrial labour now avialable in the east for the last quarter century anyways.
Those two statements contradict each other in that it was the former,together with her idea of throwing British industry to the wolves of the global free market ( which effectively meant importing stuff which we could make for ourselves ) which led to the latter.As we’ve seen the idea of importing goods from cheap labour economies,to make a few middlemen and bankers rich,has created a trade deficit which will eventually sink the western economies starting with the weakest like Greece first.
The fact is all that would have been needed to protect our economy was trade barriers in the form of import tarrifs to make imported goods uneconomic v our own.However there wouldn’t have been any profit in that for Thatcher’s corrupt banker and big business cronies who’ve thrown the country’s national interest away to make themselves richer.
The surprising thing is,how in a country that has lost countless lives fighting for the national interest,the general population was mug enough to accept the excuse that if we impose trade barriers so will our ‘trading partners’ when the figures show,that under Thatcher’s global free market scam,we’ve been turned into net importers of stuff which we were self sufficient in with a trade deficit to match. 
Protectionism always fails in the long run. Prices and wages (inflation) go up and up making our goods uncompetitive elsewhere in the world. We become trapped in a spiral of debt because the GBP has no value. A secondary market using Euros or Dollars opens up and undermines the economy even further.
Many countries have tried it, notably the US, and it always fails.
Carryfast:
Winseer:
I don’t blame it on Thatcher. She might have been responsible from moving us off an industrial base to a service base one, but the manufacturing base just would not have coped with the cheap industrial labour now avialable in the east for the last quarter century anyways.Those two statements contradict each other in that it was the former,together with her idea of throwing British industry to the wolves of the global free market ( which effectively meant importing stuff which we could make for ourselves ) which led to the latter.As we’ve seen the idea of importing goods from cheap labour economies,to make a few middlemen and bankers rich,has created a trade deficit which will eventually sink the western economies starting with the weakest like Greece first.
The fact is all that would have been needed to protect our economy was trade barriers in the form of import tarrifs to make imported goods uneconomic v our own.However there wouldn’t have been any profit in that for Thatcher’s corrupt banker and big business cronies who’ve thrown the country’s national interest away to make themselves richer.
The surprising thing is,how in a country that has lost countless lives fighting for the national interest,the general population was mug enough to accept the excuse that if we impose trade barriers so will our ‘trading partners’ when the figures show,that under Thatcher’s global free market scam,we’ve been turned into net importers of stuff which we were self sufficient in with a trade deficit to match.
firstly, Thank you for not letting me down by blaming Thatcher for the entire worlds problems, on her behalf I would like to apologise for Jimmy saville loving wonky kids, and Genghis Khan telling his neighbour to do one .
secondly, We had 14 years of a labour (you know the working persons party) to put all maggies faults right. Coincidently, you will find Tony B was Google/Starbucks/top shops best friend. It was under his tiller time that taxation laws changed to bring in and expand big global business.
We all love the past, but we cant do nothing about it… Its gone chap.
Try looking to the problem and how to save it. Sadly Maggie is wetting and soiling her pants, and is somewhat bruised in the brain department, so I await with baited breath to see how you ring her into todays problems and how to mend it.
Santa:
Protectionism always fails in the long run. Prices and wages (inflation) go up and up making our goods uncompetitive elsewhere in the world. We become trapped in a spiral of debt because the GBP has no value. A secondary market using Euros or Dollars opens up and undermines the economy even further.Many countries have tried it, notably the US, and it always fails.
There’s absolutely no way that protectionism can fail in a trade deficit situation and assuming you’re running in the ideal situation of a Fordist economy.In which case higher wages just mean higher growth and demand in the domestic economy for domestically produced goods.Unlike in the Thatcherite zb up in which even in the unlikely event that we get any growth it’ll just result in more imports of stuff which we can make for ourselves and an even bigger trade deficit which needs to be paid for using borrowed money from the imports producers because those imported goods are being paid for out of a service based economy.
Which in reality means being a net importer of manufactured goods and fuel supplies which we could have provided for ourselves all paid for using borrowed and printed money.Because having a workforce employed in looking after imported goods in a warehouse,or working in a burger restaurant,or a shop flogging imported goods,doesn’t actually create any wealth to service our imports bill ( for stuff we don’t actually even need in this case remember ) which exceeds our exports income.Your idea has just turned us into a banana republic without any bananas to sell.
ironstipper:
Carryfast:
Winseer:
I don’t blame it on Thatcher. She might have been responsible from moving us off an industrial base to a service base one, but the manufacturing base just would not have coped with the cheap industrial labour now avialable in the east for the last quarter century anyways.Those two statements contradict each other in that it was the former,together with her idea of throwing British industry to the wolves of the global free market ( which effectively meant importing stuff which we could make for ourselves ) which led to the latter.As we’ve seen the idea of importing goods from cheap labour economies,to make a few middlemen and bankers rich,has created a trade deficit which will eventually sink the western economies starting with the weakest like Greece first.
The fact is all that would have been needed to protect our economy was trade barriers in the form of import tarrifs to make imported goods uneconomic v our own.However there wouldn’t have been any profit in that for Thatcher’s corrupt banker and big business cronies who’ve thrown the country’s national interest away to make themselves richer.
The surprising thing is,how in a country that has lost countless lives fighting for the national interest,the general population was mug enough to accept the excuse that if we impose trade barriers so will our ‘trading partners’ when the figures show,that under Thatcher’s global free market scam,we’ve been turned into net importers of stuff which we were self sufficient in with a trade deficit to match.
firstly, Thank you for not letting me down by blaming Thatcher for the entire worlds problems, on her behalf I would like to apologise for Jimmy saville loving wonky kids, and Genghis Khan telling his neighbour to do one .
secondly, We had 14 years of a labour (you know the working persons party) to put all maggies faults right. Coincidently, you will find Tony B was Google/Starbucks/top shops best friend. It was under his tiller time that taxation laws changed to bring in and expand big global business.
We all love the past, but we cant do nothing about it… Its gone chap.
Try looking to the problem and how to save it. Sadly Maggie is wetting and soiling her pants, and is somewhat bruised in the brain department, so I await with baited breath to see how you ring her into todays problems and how to mend it.
As for Maggie’s current situation no comment.No we didn’t get a Labour government because as you’ve said what we actually got was first Callaghan followed by Blair instead of Shore.As for how to fix the country’s economic problems before it’s too late.It’s Fordism that’s the only way or no way.Suggest you check out how it works and the economic growth figures as they stood in the USA during the 1950’s-1960’s and why. 
I only have a simplistic understanding of the world economy and rightly or wrongly believe the whole world is basically ■■■■■■, many countries around the world are technically bankrupt, they dare not announce that for fear of global anarchy, most of Europe for a start is super screwed and beyond repair IMHO.
The way I see things is that unless the people who own all these funny money I owe you’s it is just a matter of time before the whole shebang collapses in a steaming pile of ■■■, the funny money is exactly what got this world in the problems we face today and now people are starting to collect in those debts and will no longer keep writing out cheques, they have already stripped all the worth out of the countries which borrowed and there is nothing left worth a ■■■■ to borrow against, the Uk IMHO is a great example of such dealings.
Again I profess to be no expert just stuff I peice together from reading over the years.
The only way out from what I see is a big punch up world wide or some super brave souls to admit there is no way forward and start writing off the funny money debts and start the global economy with a clean sheet, and I can’t ever see that happening sadly.
You don’t need a sheepskin coat do you 
ironstipper:
Insolvency firm Begbies Trainor grabbed the headlines just before Christmas with a claim that 147 retailers across the UK were zombies, the living dead, poised on the brink of insolvency. The headline was scary enough. But the detail was even scarier. I sense that the bloodbath on the high street will reach a rather unpleasant finale during 2013…We know why high street retailers are in trouble. They face competition from giant online retailers who do not have expensive properties to maintain and enjoy huge economies of scale (i.e. they can screw suppliers). Worse, Tesco (and to a lesser extent the other supermarkets) grab an incremental share of the off-line non food trade each year. And finally, the overborrowed UK consumer (and it seems US consumer) has finally stopped spending. That trend will not change in 2013. In fact none of them will.
The Begbies figure is calculated by seeing the number of retailers who now have trade payables of more than three months turnover and/or a county court judgment against them. Clearly if you are a retailer and you have not paid suppliers for 90 days you really are in the merde. But my suspicion is that there are a stack of retailers who have not paid suppliers for 50 days, are sitting on a pile of unsold stock after Christmas and who might not yet be zombies but they are well on their way.
The quarterly rent cheque for most retailers was due on Christmas Day. Clearly the Zombies (and neo Zombies) will have been hoping that Christmas would save them. I suspect some will have been disappointed and as such 2013 will not be very old when the first of the retailers joins Comet in high street heaven. The next big day is at the end of March. Three months of thin trading, unhelpful banks, nervous suppliers demanding payment… it will prove all too much for another batch. By Easter a second tranche of UK retailers will be toast.
From an investor point of view what does this mean? I suspect that it would be wise not to own any retailer stock with a predominantly high street presence. They are either in the merde themselves or ( like Greggs, for instance) they will lose material passing trade as more and more High Streets lose critical mass, and shoppers are forced out of town or online.
Like shooting ducks, first down to call in administrators “JESSOPS”. Sadly a privately owned company.
id love to see strikes countrywide, but no doubt that would probably backfire, and open the floodgates for the ethnic flip flop minoritys
delboytwo:
How do you see 2013 for us (drivers )Will the job get better
Will the pay get better
Will the roads get better
Will the other road users understand usOr what else do we have to look forward too.
no… not while were all treated like mindless zombies by these transport pri**ks
never … seen more jobs advertised at a " competitive rate " meaning we’ll try and pay you the least we possibly can and still run you ragged …
worse probaly more congested
no chance … give us the finger because were all ways in their way